介绍

在基础设施领域, 趋势趋同——其中一些是投资者多年来一直关注的, 近期的其他投资——应该会继续推动高质量资产的投资机会. 

最近的发展包括大量的数据投资机会, 全球对脱碳的推动, 中游行业由于对ESG的担忧而失宠. 这些都是在长期趋势中发生的，比如需要大幅资本升级的公用事业老化, 世界各国政府都在寻求解决日益膨胀的债务问题的办法.

在布鲁克菲尔德, we focus on infrastructure assets that provide the backbone for essential services supporting vital economic and social activity. Prominent examples include electricity transmission and distribution; water distribution; midstream systems; ports, rail and roads; and communications and data networks.

考虑到它们的本质, 这些资产通常为投资者提供稳定和安全的现金流, 下行保护, 从其他资产类别分散投资, 通货膨胀保护和长期负债匹配. 通过专注于重要的运营资产, 基础设施战略应该在大多数经济环境中具有弹性. 尽管十博体育网相信，基础设施对于投资者来说在各种市场条件下都是有吸引力的, 今天的气候似乎特别充满机遇. 

公用事业老龄化和资金缺口扩大

十博体育网继续观察到，公用事业领域的传统资产运营商正在寻求其他资金来源. Their capital needs are significant as they look to replace older operating assets and address decarbonization goals. 

美国的现状.S. 电网普遍凸显了基础设施资产的老化. 根据美国土木工程师协会2021年基础设施 成绩单, 70%的电力输送和分配系统都已进入其寿命的后半段.¹ 其结果是，美国经济增长放缓.S. 正在经历多次中断，影响了全国大量的客户(参见图1). 在美国.S.在美国，许多公用事业公司今天仍然是公有的，由联邦、州或市政府经营. 

These challenges come at a time when developed economies around the world have taken on historically high levels of debt—a trend that long preceded the pandemic and global economic shutdown associated with it. 人口结构不良(包括人口萎缩和老龄化), expanding entitlement programs and an extended period of low interest rates have encouraged borrowing that has led to unprecedented government deficits in the U.S. 以及欧盟的许多国家(见图2).

疫情及其给政府财政带来的压力，使这一问题变得更加紧迫.

Many traditional asset operators across the infrastructure space are contending with a wide funding gap to maintain their systems. 例如，美国土木工程师协会估计美国的石油产量.S.累计资金缺口为2美元.2020年至2029年共5万亿元(见图3).

政府可以通过三种主要方式来应对这一挑战. 他们可以增加税收，但能产生多少额外收入是有限制的. 他们也可以求助于私营部门提供服务, 或者，它们可以出售资产，用所得资金重建资产负债表. 作为私人投资者, we expect that the latter two options should create numerous opportunities for those with operational expertise and access to large-scale, 灵活的资本.

数据网络需要大规模升级

Demand for data has grown rapidly—faster than any other commodity in both developed and developing markets—and this growth shows no signs of plateauing. 

其中大部分数据仍在通过一个过时的网络在全球范围内传输. 而电信行业已经见证了从铜骨干基础设施到光纤的巨大转变, 这种转变还需要延伸到“最后一英里”——终端用户的家门口, 无论是一间办公室, 零售地点或住宅. Getting to the point where the industry can meet the ever-increasing demands for capacity and speed will require a significant amount of investment.

除了, 随着世界推出5G, 需要更多的移动通信塔和数据中心. 同时, telecommunications companies are selling interests in mature assets to specialist infrastructure investors to fund expansion projects. Such arrangements enable the telecommunications companies to secure long-term access with experienced third-party operators, 同时为这些运营商提供稳定的长期现金流. 

We expect at least $1 trillion of investment will be required over the next five years alone to upgrade data infrastructure globally (see Figure 4), 一个巨大的任务. 

全球推动脱碳

The worldwide effort to slow climate change is resulting in an outsized market opportunity in renewable energy sources.

全球共识是，必须在现代生活的各个方面减少碳排放. 十博体育网继续看到各国政府承诺实现脱碳目标, 以及私营部门自愿设定自己的目标. 

The good news is that the cost of renewable energy—particularly solar and 风—has dropped dramatically in recent years (see Figure 5). We have reached the point where a profitable investment in renewables can be achieved without support from the government. 

Goldman Sachs estimates that as much as $16 trillion of total investment will be required by 2030 to limit global warming to 2°C.² 考虑到这些脱碳行动的规模, we believe that significant opportunities will emerge for investors with scale and expertise in clean energy solutions. 随着可再生能源行业不断成熟并吸引私人资本, 十博体育网相信，在获取现金流方面也将有充足的前景, 操作可再生能源资产.

中游和运输行业的逆向投资机会

Given the momentum behind the global transition to net-zero emissions and the transformation of the energy mix required, 市场参与者已经对中游能源资产感到失望.

然而,, because the process of converting effectively to a renewable and sustainable platform will continue to require the use of midstream assets in the years ahead, 在可预见的未来，化石燃料仍将是能源结构的重要组成部分(见图6). 它们有助于支持风能和太阳能等低碳替代能源的发展. 

然而，在碳排放方面，并不是所有的化石燃料都是一样的. 天然气产生的污染和碳排放远低于煤炭, 并且可以作为不断增长的可再生能源系统的补充. 气体很容易储存，而且在没有风或没有阳光的情况下反应迅速, 哪一个是避免灯火管制和停电的关键. 

天然气面临着价格不稳定的风险, 作为一个结果, 投资者对你的好感会忽冷忽热. 为了避免这种波动, 投资者可以专注于高度防御性的投资, 合同固定资产, 如中流管道或液化天然气液化和再气化设施. 波动性还可以为私人投资者提供机会，以具有吸引力的切入点进入该行业. 尽管这些资产的寿命是有限的, we believe they will play a crucial role in the transition to net-zero emissions for decades to come and can present an attractive investment opportunity. Gas 运输 networks may also help enable the emergence of green hydrogen and carbon sequestration in the future.

与此同时，大流行给运输业带来了前所未有的不确定性. 全球旅行限制导致通过机场和港口的旅客和货物数量减少, 沿着高速公路. 投资者 understandably shied away from this asset class amid questions about when demand might return to pre-pandemic levels. 由于疫苗在许多国家仍处于初期阶段, 该行业的全球前景仍远未明朗.

然而, 作为港口和收费公路的所有者和经营者, 布鲁克菲尔德 has seen firsthand that these assets can perform well during a period of disruption with the necessary contractual agreements in place. 考虑到围绕这一资产类别的负面情绪, 十博体育网认为，可能有机会以具有吸引力的估值收购高质量资产.

展望未来

随着世界大部分地区继续从COVID-19大流行中复苏, 经济重新开放和扩张, 通胀正成为焦点. 作为一个结果, infrastructure managers with a long-term investment horizon must place a strong emphasis on ensuring cash flows have either direct or indirect inflation protection. 

适用于那些了解这些风险并能够组织减轻保护措施的管理者, the current economic backdrop could create a favorable environment to support continued strong performance across high-quality infrastructure assets and promote additional investment opportunities.

尽管全球基础设施资产的竞争持续加剧, 在资本配置方面保持纪律的经理人, 有必要的资源和规模, 环境、社会和治理意识, 并建立了采购和运营能力, 是否应该做好准备，以利用未来有吸引力的基础设施投资机会.

^尾注:

<sup>1. 美国土木工程师协会，“美国基础设施2021年报告卡”，2021年. 
2. 高盛股票研究，“碳经济学:经济复苏的绿色引擎”，2020年6月.</sup> 

^{披露的信息}

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